Over 100K starvation deaths 96% likely in Sudan by 1 Jan 2025
That's what Jeremy Lichtman's Multi-AI Oracle predicted today.
Since the last time we sent you news from Sudan, Jeremy, with a little help from Brian LaBatte and me, has been experimenting with bots built by combining several large language models including a news scraping and parsing system plus five generative AI systems (Gen AIs) in various configurations and prompts. Can we avoid their hallucinations? Can they rival humans at forecasting geopolitical events?
Short answer: the median of the participating Gen AIs: 85%; with one of Prof. Barbara Mellers' extremizing algorithms, 96%. Standard deviation among the Gen AIs: 5%.
Summary, written by one of the Gen AIs:
The prediction is based on the dire situation in Sudan, where severe food shortages are affecting over 10 million people and warnings from organizations like IOM and UN indicate thousands at risk of death. The IPC reports 755,000 individuals in catastrophe conditions, with projections that starvation-related deaths could exceed 100,000 by January 1, 2025. While the likelihood of this event is high due to the ongoing conflict and limited intervention, caution is needed regarding the accuracy of reports and the potential impact of increased aid efforts.
Rationales created by these Gen AIs:
External newsfeed from AskNews (summarized by OpenAI):
The current situation in Sudan is reported to be extremely dire, with severe food shortages affecting over 10 million people and raising concerns about potential widespread starvation. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations have issued warnings that thousands are at risk of death, with estimates suggesting that approximately 124,000 people could face famine conditions in regions like North Darfur. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), 755,000 individuals are in "catastrophe" conditions, which could lead to tens of thousands of preventable deaths in the coming months. Projections indicate that without international intervention, starvation-related deaths could exceed 100,000 by January 1, 2025. However, it is important to approach these reports cautiously, as they may contain unverified information and potential propaganda.
Querying Perplexity
Error: Perplexity is not returning an array. [Such errors are not unusual – Carolyn]
Querying Claude (AI predicts: 0.85)
Rationale from Claude:
The prediction is based on several key factors: the current dire situation in Sudan with over 10 million people affected by severe food shortages, warnings from international organizations like IOM and UN about thousands at risk of death, IPC's report of 755,000 individuals in 'catastrophe' conditions, and projections indicating potential for over 100,000 starvation-related deaths by January 1, 2025. The ongoing conflict, limited international intervention, and the short timeframe until the target date increase the likelihood. However, the prediction is not higher due to potential inaccuracies in reporting, possible increased aid efforts, and the challenge of accurately recording deaths in conflict zones.
Querying Mistral (AI predicts: 0.85)
Rationale from Mistral:
The prediction is based on several critical factors: the severe food shortages affecting over 10 million people, the IOM and UN warnings of thousands at risk of death, the IPC classification of 755,000 individuals in 'catastrophe' conditions, and projections that starvation-related deaths could exceed 100,000 by January 1, 2025 without intervention. These factors collectively suggest a high likelihood of the event occurring, despite the need for caution regarding the accuracy of the reports.
Querying Cohere (AI predicts: 0.9)
Rationale from Cohere:
The current situation in Sudan is reported to be extremely dire, with severe food shortages affecting over 10 million people and raising concerns about potential widespread starvation. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations have issued warnings that thousands are at risk of death, with estimates suggesting that approximately 124,000 people could face famine conditions in regions like North Darfur. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), 755,000 individuals are in 'catastrophe' conditions, which could lead to tens of thousands of preventable deaths in the coming months. Projections indicate that without international intervention, starvation-related deaths could exceed 100,000 by January 1, 2025. However, it is important to approach these reports cautiously, as they may contain unverified information and potential propaganda.
Querying OpenAI (AI predicts: 0.75)
Rationale from OpenAI:
The current situation in Sudan is extremely dire, with severe food shortages affecting over 10 million people. Organizations like the IOM and the UN are issuing warnings about the potential for widespread starvation, with estimates suggesting that 124,000 people could face famine conditions. The IPC indicates that 755,000 individuals are in 'catastrophe' conditions, which puts them at significant risk of death if the situation does not improve. Despite the potential for intervention and the presence of some unverified information, the risk of starvation-related deaths exceeding 100,000 by January 1, 2025, is high.
More news from the BestWorld family of Jeremy's bots, updated on weekdays – ->
